The speaker was Dr. Truong Van Phuoc, former Acting Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission. Attending the seminar were the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) Mr. Le Tien Truong; Vinatex General Director Mr. Cao Huu Hieu, along with leaders of the Executive Board, leaders of functional departments of the Group, and leaders and chief accountants of member units in Hanoi and nearly 20 online locations nationwide.

Online seminar

Dr. Truong Van Phuoc presented the Financial – Monetary trends in the last 6 months of 2024

Providing some information on financial-monetary trends in the last six months of 2024, Dr. Truong Van Phuoc stated that the FED focuses on three main indicators: inflation, unemployment rate, and GDP growth to make decisions about interest rates. In the context of the second estimate of US GDP growth in Q1, 2024 increased by only 1.3% annually, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the first estimate (1.6%) and significantly lower than that in Q4 2023 growth (3.4%), leading a decline in personal consumption, and inflation remaining around 3 – 3.7%, etc. This could lead to the FED’s decision to cut interest rates earlier than planned in September 2024.

In Vietnam, the USD/VND exchange rate has increased by nearly 3.97% compared to the beginning of the year. However, if the FED cuts interest rates earlier than expected, the pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate will likely be eased. Dr. Truong Van Phuoc forecasts that by the end of 2024, the USD/VND exchange rate will increase by about 1%, fluctuating between VND25,700 and VND25,800.

According to Dr. Phuoc, although the national currencies of textile and garment exporting competitors have stabilized and are no longer being devalued as much as in 2022, some countries such as Mexico, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Indonesia may continue to devalue their currencies to increase competitiveness against Vietnamese textiles in the rest of 2024. Additionally, Dr. Phuoc predicts that the deposit interest rate of the VND, which is on an upward trend, will likely maintain at 6.5 – 6.8%.

Concluding the seminar, Mr. Le Tien Truong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vinatex, stated that based on Dr. Truong Van Phuoc’s insights and the forecast information from the Group’s research department on financial and monetary market trends in the near future, member units need to calculate financial plans, capital sources, and bank loans for the business plan in the second half of 2024. Specifically, with the current USD/VND exchange rate, businesses need to consider appropriate conversion plans suitable for their business conditions.

Regarding the Japanese Yen, the JPY/USD exchange rate is likely to increase by about 10% by the end of the year, so orders from this market should be signed within a sufficient timeframe, not too far in advance, to respond to market fluctuations. For the US market, if long-term orders can be signed, businesses should take advantage of opportunities to secure orders.

However, to compete with other countries that might continue to devalue their local currencies, the “narrow path” for Vietnam’s textile and garment industry is high-end, technically sophisticated, and high-value products. At the same time, businesses need to tighten the quality and origin of products instead of chasing the output.